European Market penetration by National Carriers
20 December 2024
In my latest analysis (see table at the bottom), I examine the market penetration of European national airlines with regard to the primary airports in their respective countries. This study considered 39 countries and their primary airports, alongside 27 national airlines. For the route network portfolio, current (year-round and seasonal) and announced routes were analyzed, with the limitation that only routes originating from the airlines’ hubs were included. The number of flights per route or the seat capacity offered was not factored into this analysis.
The discrepancy between 39 countries and 27 airlines can be attributed to the fact that eight countries (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, Kosovo, Moldova, North Macedonia, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Hungary) no longer have national airlines. These roles have been assumed either by local or pan-European low-cost carriers or are served by external national carriers connecting these markets with their hubs. Additionally, two airlines act as national carriers for multiple European countries: SAS Scandinavian Airlines (SK) for Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, and Air Baltic (BT) for Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine were excluded from this analysis due to political sanctions and safety-related instability. These conditions would not yield meaningful results: Ukrainian airspace remains closed, and flights between European countries and Belarus or Russia (with exceptions such as Serbia and Turkey) are sanctioned and therefore prohibited.
Analysis from the Airlines’ Perspective
Which flag carrier serves the most markets? The data reveals that Aegean Airlines (A3), Lufthansa (LH), and Turkish Airlines (TK) each serve 36 markets, achieving a market penetration of 92%. Aegean Airlines' ranking is particularly noteworthy, given that it is not considered one of the major European airlines. The only airports not covered by Aegean Airlines are Bratislava (BTS), Keflavik (KEF), and Pristina (PRN). Lufthansa serves all listed markets except Bratislava, Podgorica (TGD), and Pristina. Turkish Airlines, on the other hand, excludes Bratislava, Keflavik, and Tirana (TIA) from its Istanbul (IST) hub. However, Tirana is covered by its subsidiary, Albanian Airlines (ZB). These results highlight the comprehensive pan-European coverage of Lufthansa and Turkish Airlines, which comes as no surprise. Trailing closely are Polish carrier LOT (LO) with 35 destinations (90%), Air Baltic (BT) with 33 destinations (85%), and Swiss Air Lines with 30 destinations (77%).
From the opposite perspective—airlines with the lowest market penetration—Albanian Airlines covers only 2 destinations (including its own hub), amounting to a mere 5% of the total market. This is largely due to its small fleet of two aircraft and its focus on secondary airports. Cyprus Airways (CY) follows with three destinations (8%), and Air Montenegro (4O) with five destinations (13%).
On a regional level, further conclusions can be drawn. In addition to their home carriers Finnair (AY), Icelandair (FI), and SAS (SK), only Air Baltic, British Airways (BA), and Lufthansa fully cover the Scandinavian market. For the Baltic region, apart from home carrier Air Baltic, Aegean Airlines, Finnair, Lufthansa, and Turkish Airlines also have full coverage. Turkish Airlines is the only national airline serving all former Yugoslavian markets. Meanwhile, the Benelux states are covered by home carriers Brussels Airlines (SN), KLM (KL), and Luxair (LG), along with Aegean Airlines, British Airways, LOT, Lufthansa, Swiss Air Lines, Turkish Airlines, and TAP Air Portugal (TP).
Analysis from the Airports’ Perspective
As mentioned earlier, 39 (capital city) airports were analyzed. Surprisingly, Prague Airport (PRG) boasts the highest market penetration by European national carriers, with 24 airlines (89%). This is primarily due to two factors: the absence of a local national carrier and the airport's central geographic location in Europe. Prague is closely followed by mega hubs such as Amsterdam (AMS), Paris Charles de Gaulle (CDG), Rome Fiumicino (FCO), and Zurich (ZRH), each hosting 23 European flag carriers (85%).
On the other end of the spectrum, Bratislava stands out as it is not served by any of the analyzed national carriers. This can be attributed to Slovakia’s lack of a national airline and Bratislava’s proximity to Vienna Airport, just 50 km (40 minutes by car) from Bratislava’s city center. Vienna Airport (VIE), by contrast, has a market penetration of 70% from the perspective of all airlines and 72% for its local carrier Austrian Airlines. For airlines operating at VIE, serving two airports in two different countries within the same catchment area does not appear to be an attractive strategy.
Following Bratislava, Pristina comes next with 5 airlines (19%), followed by Chisinau and Podgorica with 6 (22%), and Riga (RIX) with 7 airlines (26%). The dominance of local carrier Air Baltic in Riga is particularly evident.
Finally, Istanbul Airport (IST) is served by only 14 European national carriers (52%). Similar to Riga, this is due to the dominance of its home carrier Turkish Airlines. However, given Istanbul Airport’s immense size (in terms of annual passenger numbers), this statistic is particularly striking. Further details on this topic can be found in my blog (#12) from November 4, 2024.
